China´s currency manipulation is another issue, and one that will not go away easily or cheaply. Basically it´s a Mercantilist strategy that works on three pillars:
- If you have a Euro or a Dollar in China, the government will give you more than it is worth in Yuan. This encourages people to sell goods outside the country and horde foreign currency.
- If you need a Euro or Dollar in China, the government will charge you a premium to buy them with Yuan. This discourages people in the country from buying goods from foreigners.
- The country has strong capital controls, so you can´t get Yuan other ways, nor can you buy Chinese land or factories without a shakedown from the government, nor can you take money out of the country.
So yeah, if there´s some real pushback and Chinese goods become uncompetitive via tariffs or blockade or competitive currency manipulation, then the whole Chinese system will have to change radically. It remains to be seen if it is actually agile enough to do that.
And yes, the weird Chinese money system is a big part of the hugely skewed results you get looking in different places. If you ask how many dollars you can buy with the Yuan-denominated GDP of China, you get a very different answer than if you ask what the Purchase Parity of China´s GDP is.
-Username17